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1/12/2008 EREs in the financial organizations
We are attending that by an excess of installed capacity many companies of automotion but also of construction must undo of human capital. If your sales are reduced in a 30%, it is normal that you lower the number of produced units reason why a determined number of your employees will not be necessary. It is why the figure of the File of Regulation of Use exists to undertake reductions of the group by productive needs.
We remove this subject to collation because in Spain the banking business has grown to rates superiors to 20% the last years favored by the real estate bubble, which has brought about that the number of employees in the sector increases, concretely in a 11.4% in the last 10 years up to 270,000 employees according to data of the Statistical Bulletin of
Bank of Spain. This growth has not been proportional but the banks have reduced their number of employees in a 13% up to 117,500 whereas the savings banks have increased it up to 132,000 what supposes a 42% more.
This increase has been accompanied of a reduction of the number of employees destined to central services and an increase of the personnel in the points of sale (essentially offices) reason why is difficult to continue thinning the organizations via reduction of the support personnel.
In order to measure as to affected the real estate bubble to the volume of credits granted by the financial organizations we have compared the Total of credits with the GIP of Spain (Total Créditos/PIB). In addition we have compared east ratio with the one of other countries France and Germany to see if the volume of credits is greater in Spain or these countries with respect to its GIP. The evolution takes shelter in the following graph:
 It is come off that an average number would be that the total amount of credits granted by the financial organizations would be 1.1 times the GIP of a country (average between France and Germany). It has had it to Germany more elevated, it is reducing but it for 8 years in which its financial sector has suffered of significant form. In Spain there has been a brutal growth mainly as of 2004 where the slope increases significantly. This excess of credit on the Spanish GIP we could compare it with an excess of installed capacity that would suppose that to arrive at that average of 1.1 it would have to be reduced the credit in a 34%. If to this we added to him that:
the present crisis is going to take to Spain, just as to other countries, a recession that the GIP will reduce (that means recession)
and that great part of that growth of the credit has concentrated in promotional the construction sector/whose activity is being reduced drastically,
this ratio of 1.68 in the case of Spain can raise although we do not increase the credit since the GIP would be reduced (the denominator).
The 23 of April of 2000, in I supplement of the newspaper of the called World New Economy published an article signed by Miguel A. titled Garci'a “New challenges for the bank� in which it augured a reduction of the number of employees of the financial organizations in 70.000 people and the closing of 7,000 branches. We recommended to you to read the article because it gives sample of how in that year it did not exist brings back to consciousness of a future real estate bubble and their effects reason why were not possible to wait for the happened events since then.
In the following picture we pick up the number of employees of financial organizations that was at the end of 2000 and present as well as what would have to project a reduction of 70,000 uses as it takes shelter in the article.
We also analyze the number of banking offices and what the theoretical closing of 7,000 offices would suppose:
As during last the 7 years one has not taken place what the article but quite the opposite predicted, favored by the real estate bubble, the adjustment now will have to be stronger with reductions superiors to 40% of the group in savings banks and number of offices and superiors to 20% in the case of the banks to adapt to the capacity necessary to continue its activity. Â
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