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22/12/2008 To invest in shaken times, long term stock-market, not always raises
The national and international economic situation is presenting/displaying us a very uncertain future. It is by that we do not have to let take to us by the habitual affirmations of in the long term we will recover,…
 We can be almost safe that the world-wide economy will reclaim its footpath, but cannot be it as much that stock-market returns to mainly recover that bullish footpath that has been in the last years old, in certain countries.
That it would happen if we invested only in variable rent of a country and this he would be the one that did not recover?
Next we see the graph of the evolution of the variable rent in Japan, Index Nikkei 225, during last the 23 years. At the moment one is in values of 1985 what it does not give guarantee us from which this cannot return to happen. We do not have to forget that this situation in Japan came preceded from a tremendous real estate bubble that has sunk to Japan in a footpath of under growth. This has not caused that the Japaneses cannot continue having the highest one spending power and to travel by everybody, but that causes that their companies year to year have been losing weight in the world-wide economy.
This crisis can leave to some countries in a situation similar to the one of Japan of principles of 90s. If this is thus, the investor in variable Rent can lose much money reason why a correct selection takes special importance from investments basing us on two fundamental premises:
- Geographic diversification, so that if the one is our country of residence that behaves as Japan affects less possible our investments. As much EE.UU as UK, as Spain has possibilities of entering a period of stagnation in the growth. In addition with the types to interest to 0% to the investment in deposits it practically stops being an alternative.
- To invest in anti-cyclic called productive sectors. Companies that obtain benefits as much when the things go very well like when they do not go it as much. We could take like Oil, Electrical examples, Gas distribution, Phamacists, Water, Concessionaires, Telecommunications… In this point we have done a selection of European companies that belonging to these sectors very have a payment of dividends over the present types of interest (thanks to the slopes of this last year) and which they especially do not have his benefit in danger by the worsening in the economic surroundings.
Perhaps to buy these companies is not most novel, but reason why we have been able to see lately does not have because to be less effective. As we see invest when the things go well are “easy�, when everything raises hill to be mistaken, but are now, when the things are put difficult, when it acquires importance of choosing the correct investment.
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