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12/01/2009 To make case to the technicians
Years ago they told a joke me that represents very well my opinion on the evil called technicians (between whom it could be included to that it writes).
“A man has three ways to go to ruin: the women, the game and the technicians. The two first are most pleasant, but the last one is safest�.
This comes to the case because, again, we see that the forecast or prediction of the present crisis is not had right in.
This not must to that it is not had I predecide, but stablisment makes that the voices of predicts which it are listened to, for sample examples:
- When some voices were raised before the “irrational exuberance� of the technological bubble of end of 90s, these were silenced because it gave many more money than there was bubble that the fact that this “was punctured�. We have seen it in the Spanish elections of March of the 2008 or real estate bubble.
- No of the qualification agencies/auditors are going to speak badly of their clients when they are these who they pay to them.
- The stock-exchange analysts work for agencies/societies of values. The income of these agencies/societies of values come from the purchase/action sale, as they enter much more when the markets raise that when they lower (sort selling to win bearish money in markets is tremendously complex) that are going to recommend these analysts.
- Centering us in the analysts, I read recently that an analyst must be based on the present circumstances (when everything is rose color) to make his predictions. Certainly now they do not do it with predictions that the GIP is going to have a growth of the -1% next the 20 years. Their predictions are based on which “everything goes well� but as this is not thus, they never guess right.
By all this, if we want to remove something in clear from this crisis, there are three simple things that we would have to do:
- To break the client relation/supplier between the company and the auditor and the agency of qualification that could become by two routes:
- That the tariffs were appraised and state and the fixed and obligatory auditor during a long period of time, which would avoid that the companies auctioned these services to which less copper. Public contest or drawing in the great companies could be chosen mainly by that are those that can bring about more problems in case of bankruptcy. In the quoted companies they could be under the supervision of the CNMV.
- The audits and qualifications would emit a state company. This would suppose a greater cost reason why it seems less possible, although if it could be for the companies quoted under the umbrella of the CNMV.
- To break the relation between analysts and agencies or societies of values. Some type of opposition could settle down to choose them, being the forced agencies and societies to maintain them based on its invoicing economically, being these under the umbrella of the CNMV.
- That the analysts who emit valuations of companies or sectors have some responsibility she exceeds what says, just as an architect or an engineer has responsibility on the projects that sight.
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