Articles of Opinion

10/02/2009

Possible Safe Investments. Swedish crowns and Norwegians

In the present crisis, we were before the uncertainty that there is nothing really
surely.

We leave from the base that the security to the 100% does not exist, but analyzing different options we create exists an option that would mitigate the majority of the innumerable present risks:

• The banks are in prohibition reason why the deposits also.
• The national debt is apparent safe, but there are opinions to near the excessive indebtedness via deficit.
• Fear to a corralito in some countries exists.
• Also one is afraid that all the injections of liquidity that are making EE.UU., the Zone Euro and the United Kingdom can desenvocar in an elevated inflation, that makes lose the spending power of deposits and national debt without the need that nobody stops paying. In order to avoid a deflation you emit more monetary mass, but that if it is not controlled brings about the appearance of a hyperinflation.
• The real estate investment is not contemplated before the falls of prices and the distrust to that a recovery of the prices can be produced since in Germany and Japan they have been lowering for more than 10 years.
• The investment in stock market is difficult because we do not know that sectors are those that will hold.

Before this devastating panorama, two alternatives are happened to us that we create would palliate all these risks:

1. The very habitual one to invest in stock market, because in the long term it recovered his value, apart from which the companies when transferring a hypothetical hyperinflation in their tariffs, could compensate it partly. We were with several peros:
   1. What companies to choose? They would have to be of diverse countries and sectors to compensate corralito risks.
   2. When to choose it? If they follow the slopes the long term can become very very long term, it seems that mature and necessary sectors would have our election (Electrical, Telecos, Phamacists, Feeding,…)

    

2. Another alternative that we have found is to invest in Deposits or monetary bottoms of countries that giving legal security us have not been affected by the crisis. Here it is where they enter Sweden but Norway essentially. One is a country with 4.4 million inhabitants and tremendous petroleum reserves that have not been affected by the crisis it subprioritizes and the international scandals.
   1. The government more is adjusted thanks to the accumulated reserves of petroleum.
   2. They do not have risk of future inflations by of not having had to inject money.
   3. If one takes place a high inflation in Europe and EE.UU we would win because, our investment when denominated being in Koronas, would not be affected.

   How to invest in these markets? , because four ways exist:

   1. To engage to a deposit in Koronas Norwegians in our present organization, but this would not save to us of a corralito.
   2. To buy action of stock market of that country, but in the global world, those companies sell safe to other countries. We would have the same risks that in point 1.
   3. Abrir a banking account to us and to transfer our money there. It would suppose an important cost since we would have to do it there physically.
   4. To contract a monetary bottom denominated in Koronas Norwegians. One would be a bottom that would invest in national debt Norwegian and deposits and rent fix short term of companies of that country. In Spain, two options of Nordea exist at least (important Scandinavian manager of bottoms) are:
      • Nordea-1 Norweg Kroner Resv BP Acc Rents Fixes Koronas Norwegians
      • Skandia SEK Reserve Fund A1 Acc Rents Fixes Koronas Swedish

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