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Of risk, generally, it can be defined as the probability of some adverse events
The risk of the investment is related to the probability of obtaining a benefit smaller than the awaited yield - greater it is the probability of obtaining low yields or negative, they have major investment risk
The waited for rate of return of an investment is the expected value of the probability distribution of the possible benefits;
The rational investors have “portfolio� of risk assets, but more they are worried about the portfolio risk that the risk of each assets
Total risk = nonsystematic, concrete Risk + systematic risk of market
The “systematic risk of market� is a type of risk that affects all the companies generally and not to happen to be reduced by means of the diversification talks about the uncertainty of the inflation, monetary policy and the fiscal policy, to the changing circumstances. How it is a risk that cannot be attenuated by the diversification strategy, the investors to realize investments in the company like an alternative to bonds of the government (free risk-rate), will demand an additional indemnification by realized risk of market. It is easy to understand because he is related to the change in the value of the assets (basic goods, services, tariffs, products). The risk is greater of gaining or of losing amounts for the simple change of prices of the assets in the financial markets. In order to illustrate, it considers that an investor who bought 1,000 preferred stocks of Petrobra's to a price of 45.00 dollars for the payment of R $ 45,000, 00. In this portfolio it will have a value at the end of the morning, due to changes in the value of this action? As the value of the goods commerce object is determined by the market, the uncertainty on the future value of the assets (the oscillation can represent the gain or loss) is what characterizes next, the market risk.
The market risk is the risk of the world-wide markets due to:
- Changes in the types of interest;
- Spreading of the financial indicators: the inflation, the growth, the saving, the confidence of the consumer,
- Political crises, scandals, denunciations;
- The financial or banking crises international national or
- The terrorist war, revolution, attacks
- fluctuations in the international markets;
- Changes in the policy, the change of the key ministries;
- The changes in the rates of taxes by the government;
- Acceptance by the positioning in the stock market of the government;
- Classification of risk of the country by the international organizations;
- Results of the surveys of vote in the elections.
The risk of capital inverted in the company reflects the systematic risk or of market, that is disturbed as well in: - Risk of business in the management of the operation of the company - the financial risk, along with the financial structure
The specific risk of assets, that are moderate by the standard deviation of the returns, is only excellent when the assets maintained in isolation;
When the assets are grouped in a portfolio, the excellent risk is the risk of market, that is to say, the contribution of goods to the risk of the portfolio;
The specific risk of assets can be measured by the variation of the yields of its standard deviation, or the coefficient of variation, that is the measurement more used to compare the risk of the different assets;
The waited for rate of yield of a portfolio is the weighted average of the waited for yields of the assets of the portfolio, but the standard deviation of the portfolio is the standard deviation average average of the portfolio assets;
If the assets of the portfolio are not correlated positively, the grouping of the assets in a portfolio, generally, reduces the risk.
The risk of assets has two components: the specific risk that can be extracted after the diversification and risk of market, that cannot be eliminated by means of the diversification;
An efficient portfolio is the one that offers a greater yield for a given level of risk or the lowest risk for a given yield
The specific or nonsystematic risk, is one that involves a specific company and, possibly, its more direct competitors. This it is a type of risk can be reduced through a diversified portfolio. A company that follows a diversification strategy, little by little to eliminate the specific risk of its business, being in last instance, subjects at risk of market. This commercial strategy does not create value for the shareholder, but it creates value for other social groups, such as managers, employees and creditors poi reduces the specific risk for which they did not count on protection before the diversification. The unique way to create value for the shareholders is to invest in projects with returns over the rate of cost of opportunity of the capital.
The optimal portfolio for an investor is defined by the tangent between the efficient portfolios and the curve of indifference of the investors. The credit risk
The credit risk talks about to a possible failure of the financial institution responsible for the expedition of the financial assets used in the investments to fulfill its financial commitments the investors. This situation can be caused by financial problems derived from the bad administration and the management, the difficulties with the economic plans, etc.
The obligations of the contract Law some had not been finished by any reason by the counterpart, that is to say, the risk of which a counterpart does not perform one's duty.
The evaluation of risk in the banking financing, can be done through quantitative and qualitative financial indicators, to evaluate the risk of credit of a company. Quantitative indicators concentrate in the valuation of the company during the period of reference with information on the yield and the financial solidity of the company in the past. The quality, is more and more an important weight in the final analysis. In a global economy and constant evolution, the success in the past does not ensure the success of the future projects. Thus, the qualitative indicators include the expectation of which the bank in the success of the company in the future next. These reflect the quality of the management, the capacity of the managers to face the challenges, the capacity of technological innovation, the formation of their employees or even the wealth of the shareholders. Risk of Businesses
The risk of businesses can be defined as the inherent uncertainty in the projections of income or gains before taxes and costs of financing (as a result of the economic operation).
Companies of risk vary over the years of company to company and the changes. It depends on several factors, such as:
- The instability of the demand: whichever major is the stability of the demand to reduce the risk of the company;
- Volatileness of the prices: whichever major is the variability of the prices is greater the risk;
- The volatileness of the entrance costs: most uncertain it is the prediction of prices for the acquisition of provisions and the manpower, most dangerous is the business;
- Possibility of passage through increases of costs in the sale prices retail, the inflation in the last years has done of this fundamental question. At the most difficult the impact on the sale price of the changes in costs of consumptions, major is the risk of the companies;
- Size of fixed costs: the more high the fixed costs the risk of the company is greater, insofar as the fall in the demand is an impact than more proportional on the operation benefits.
Some can be made decisions in the companies to reduce the enterprise risk, for example:
a) The policy of “marketing� that can be used to reduce to the volatileness of the demand and the prices;
b) The negotiation of contracts with suppliers and clients, or the pressure on the government or the use of market of futures (future and options) for the products that exist, can help to stabilize the prices sale and buys.
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